суббота, 16 июня 2018 г.

Fake pin bar strategy


How to Trade Fake Pin Bars.
Price action and Macro.
One of the more compelling entry triggers via price action is the Pin Bar.
Pin Bar, which is short for ‘Pinocchio Bar,’ is a single candlestick setup that clues price action traders into potential reversals in the market. A pin bar is an elongated wick that ‘sticks out’ from price action. Traders will usually look for one-sided wicks that are two times the size of the candlesticks body.
When traders see elongated wicks sticking out from price action, they can look for the momentum that created the long wick to continue by looking for a reversal.
So if a trader sees a long wick sticking out below price action; they can look to go long. If a trader sees a long wick sticking out above price action, they may want to look to go short.
Much like Pinocchio’s nose – the elongated wick of a pin bar can tell us that a lie is being told.
But not all long wicks are created equal. As a matter of fact, many of these long wicks will not be Pin Bars at all; but that does not mean that they can’t be used by Price Action traders. This article will walk through how to trade ‘fake’ Pin Bars, or long wicks that do not stick out from price action.
What separates a Pin Bar from a Fake Pin Bar?
The difference between a Pin Bar and a Fake Pin Bar is determined by recent price action.
If the long wick sticks out from recent prices, that is a Pin Bar. This is the ‘lie’ that the market may be telling us: That a movement to a previously untested level has brought a new group of buyers (or sellers in the case of a bearish Pin Bar).
If the long wick does not stick out from previous price action; they are not a genuine Pin Bar, but rather ‘Fake Pin Bars.’ The picture below will illustrate with further detail:
As you can see above picture, the fake pin bar doesn’t quite stick out from previous and recent price action.
With a genuine pin bar leaving a long wick above the candle, traders could look to open a short position to take part in the momentum that created the long wick in the first place.
However, as you can see from the above setup – that would not have worked out too well.
Trading Fake Pin Bars requires additional analysis, as the signal of a short-term reversal in prices may not be as consistent as that of a genuine pin bar.
How to Trade Fake Pin Bars.
The first thing we want to get comfortable with when looking for Pin Bars, or Fake Pin Bars, is what it is that we are looking to take part in by trading that setup. Let’s take a closer look at a legitimate Pin Bar below:
From the above graphic, we can see what makes the pin bar attractive is the fact that price has reversed enough to leave a long wick exposed underneath price action (all taking place during the pin bar candle).
But what if a long wick isn’t sitting outside of recent price action?
This might mean that the potential for a reversal on fake pin bars could be smaller than that of genuine pin bars. But that doesn’t mean that price action traders can’t use this information to our advantage – we merely have to qualify which fake pin bars might be favorable and which are not.
We can do this by looking at the trend of the currency pair, and attempting to enter ONLY in the direction of the longer term trend. Traders can even use price action analysis to qualify and analyze trends, much like we looked at in our Introduction to Price Action .
To do this, we would want to scroll out on our charts and analyze more previous prices than if we are trading a genuine pin bar; and the reason for this is so that we can get a better assessment of the long-term trend and look to only trade in that direction. The picture below will illustrate an up-trend with a bullish fake pin bar.
From the above graphic, we can see that after price had established an up-trend by creating a series of higher highs, and higher lows a fast price movement to the downside was corrected before the candle had completed (leaving the long wick circled above).
Traders can look to trade this fake pin bar by going long after this candle has formed, placing a stop slightly below the low of the fake pin bar wick. That way, if price happens to reverse against us (and move down while we are in a long position), we can exit the position if a lower price is printed below the bottom of the fake pin bar wick (picture illustrating further is below):
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--- Written by James B. Stanley.
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Developing a system #18 (Pin reversal bar)
Submitted by User on September 28, 2009 - 06:22.
Im Nick and i am pretty new to trading and have only been trading demo accounts so far and have found this site very helpful so thanks Edward and team.
I would like to share an idea for a system and get some feed back and hopefully people will forward test it if they think it is worth while.
basically the idea is you trade the break out off the hourly bar witch closes at 7am on a day after where an pin reversal bar has occurred on a daily chart, this idea came about because i was trying to find a better risk/reward than placing the stop loss at top off pin bar.
You get in at the low of pin bar, or if it does not get hit, you take 7am breakout ;) works well any currency pair. And what is your exit strategy?
Kris from Estonia.
I like the simplicity of the idea.
I would assume we'll be looking to take trades only in one direction based on the appearance of the pin reversal bar. E. g. on your first screenshot, it would be only a Sell order after the highlighted pin bar.
As far as I'm concerned, no additional filters/indicators requires so far.
The question is, how do we know if it is time to protect our position or let it run.
Here is what I've been thinking initially:
After the entry, we keep a trade open for the whole day. By the end of the day (assuming that our Stop loss was not hit) we can evaluate further risks of being in the trade and see whether the reversal is actually showing some promising signs for tomorrow.
If the following day could not clear the pin bar's height, or does it very unconvincingly (e. g. clearing the candle body + shadows by just 10-20 pips or less), we should consider some actions to protect our position, since as far as we can see there is little promise ahead. Thus moving a stop loss to breakeven might be an option.
If the following day we have a good progress, then we can leave a trade open without significant concerns, because everything [price] is going according to the plan.
If the following day we have a candle that clears both: the pin bar and its previous bar, that is a strong sign that we have might just caught a true top/bottom and there should be some good reward ahead.
Hi Kris and Edward thanks for your replys.
yes you assume right only place order in one direction after pin bar.
i have found personally the 7am bar break works best on GBP/USD as on other pairs you seem to get stopped out with a false break and should probably wiat for brake off pin bar low / high with mabey stops governed by asian range i would like to know if any one has any ideas for optimum entry time on other pairs.
as for exits i agree must let trade run till end of day if i have a small proffit say 20-40 pips if my stop has'nt been hit i will close trade. if we have a large move its worth waiting as to see what happens next day as price will quiet offten carry on for 2-3 days before a major retraction but i allways look for areas of support/resistance and major round numbers as we approach these it could be time to exit regardless.
What do you mean by 7 am? Is it GMT or EST?
It is 7 am GMT according to the screen shot.
I trade pin bar on two ways:
1 - I play the break out always when pin is formed against the trend and with the trend. If divergence is found, much better. Watch for support/resistance position. Never sell against a support level/never buy against resistance level. If pin bar is too close just let it go.
2 - After most pin bars formation (specially on 4H) prices retrace, some can go as far as 61% reversal on the tail. I would take an entry if prices reach 50% of the whole previous bar (pin bar) with my stops 2-5 pips above/bellow bar tail. This way I will minimize my lost if it is a fake pin bar. Most of the times they are not.
The above is much better on 4H, Daily, Weekly. Play 5 min, 15min pin bars with divergence.
I want to make a comment on the above picture and add my two cents.
Submitted by Edward Revy on October 15, 2009 - 21:13.
I think and IMHO the first formation "IS THE BEST OF THE BEST" 2 pin bars are better than 1 and much better if the second bar tail falls lower than the first one. If you read these two bars properly they are telling you that buying pressure on the second bar are very exhausted. They tried to go up again for a second time but failed. I would play 2 consecutive pin bars all the time. You just imagine that 2 pin bars are not very common, why because when the first one is formed there is already weakness on the previous trend so when you see 2 pin bars you will hit the jackpot.(All this is assuming that the bar is completed.
The other 2 examples are not bad at all but if you are referring to the entry points I think the entry would be too late. Why to wait for prices to go that low??
On the question "how do we know if it is time to protect our position or let it run" I would say that pin bars are the best price action formations with a great, fabulous, incredible Risk/Reward numbers. Just don't be greedy and close half position when 1:1.5, move you stops 5-10 pips covering your entry point and trail bar by bar because really no one knows when the market is reversing again. There will be plenty of pin bars for every one today, tomorrow and for the rest of the market existence.
Thanks for this great website.
I too trade Pin Bars but only on the daily timeframe. I find its more reliable than the smaller time frames, as the daily charts contain less noise. Here is a link to some very useful documents that I used when I learnt about them. Hope people find them useful.
I only trade daily bars and have been consistently profitable for about a year. My entries are 10 pips above/below the high/low of the pin bar, depending on the direction the price action is likely to go. Stop loss also goes 10 pips above or below the high/low. I might trail stops depending on what happens the day my orders trigger. I also tend to look for additional things when trading pins. These include confluence of Fib levels and moving averages, to stack the odds in my favour. For example, on Thursday 14 May (last week)there was a good Pin bar on the USDCAD daily chart. Friday 14th May I closed with a decent profit.
I hope these links help those who are learning about Pin Bars.
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Pin Bar Trading Strategy.
The Pin Bar Pattern (Reversal or Continuation)
A pin bar pattern consists of one price bar, typically a candlestick price bar, which represents a sharp reversal and rejection of price. The pin bar reversal as it is sometimes called, is defined by a long tail, the tail is also referred to as a “shadow” or “wick”. The area between the open and close of the pin bar is called its “real body”, and pin bars generally have small real bodies in comparison to their long tails.
The tail of the pin bar shows the area of price that was rejected, and the implication is that price will continue to move opposite to the direction the tail points. Thus, a bearish pin bar signal is one that has a long upper tail, showing rejection of higher prices with the implication that price will fall in the near-term. A bullish pin bar signal has a long lower tail, showing rejection of lower prices with the implication that price will rise in the near-term.
How to Trade with Pin Bars.
When trading pin bars, there are a few different entry options for traders. The first, and perhaps most popular, is entering the pin bar trade “at market”. That simply means you enter the trade at the current market price.
Note: the pin bar pattern must be closed out before entering the market based on it. Until the bar is closed as a pin bar pattern, it’s not really a pin bar yet.
Another entry option for a pin bar trading signal, is entering on a 50% retrace of the pin bar. In other words, you would wait for price to retrace to about the halfway point of the entire pin bar’s range from high to low, or its “50% level”, where you would have already placed a limit entry order.
A trader can also enter a pin bar signal by using an “on-stop” entry, placed just below the low or above the high of the pin bar.
Here’s an example of what the various pin bar entry options might look like:
Trading Pin Bar Signals in a Trending Market.
Trading with the trend is arguably the best way to trade any market. A pin bar entry signal, in a trending market, can offer a very high-probability entry and a good risk to reward scenario.
In the example below, we can see a bullish pin bar signal that formed in the context of an up-trending market. This type of pin bar shows rejection of lower prices (note the long lower tail), so it’s called a “bullish pin bar” since the implication of the rejection reflected in the pin bar is that the bulls will resume pushing price higher…
Trading Pin Bars against the Trend, From Key Chart Levels.
When trading a pin bar counter to, or against a dominant trend, it’s widely accepted that a trader should do so from a key chart level of support or resistance. The key level adds extra ‘weight’ to the pin bar pattern, just as it does with counter-trend inside bar patterns. Any time you see a point in the market where price initiated a significant move either up or down, that is a key level to watch for pin bar reversals .
Pin bars can also be traded in combination with other price action patterns. In the chart below, we can see an inside pin bar combo pattern . This is a pattern in which the inside bar is also a pin bar pattern. These inside pin bar signals work best in trending markets like we see below…
The pattern in the chart below could be considered the ‘opposite’ of the inside-pin bar, it’s an inside bar inside a pin bar signal. It’s relatively common to see an inside bar form within the range of a pin bar pattern. Often, a large breakout move will follow an inside bar formed within a pin bar’s range, for this reason, the pin bar + inside bar combo setup is a very potent price action trading pattern, as we can see in the chart below…
It is not uncommon to see back-to-back or “double pin bar patterns” from at key levels in the market. These patterns are traded just like a normal pin bar, except they provide a trader with a little more ‘confirmation’ since they reflect two consecutive rejections of a level…
As a beginning trader, it’s easiest to learn how to trade pin bars in-line with the dominant daily chart trend, or ‘in-line with the trend’. Counter-trend pin bars are a bit trickier and take more time and experience to become proficient at. Pin bars basically show a reversal in the market, so they are a very good tool for predicting the near-term, and sometimes long-term, direction of price. They often mark major tops or bottoms (turning points) in a market. Not every pin bar is going to be one worth trading. The best ones occur in strong trends after a retrace to support or resistance within the trend, or from a key chart level of support or resistance. As a beginner, keep your eyes peeled for daily chart time frame pin bars as well as 4 hour chart time frame pin bars, as they seem to be the most accurate and profitable. Longer tails on a pin bar indicate a more significant reversal and rejection of price. Thus, long-tailed pin bars tend to be a little higher-probability than their shorter-tailed counter-parts. Long-tailed pin bars also tend to see price retrace to near the pin bar’s 50% level more often than shorter-tailed pins, this means they are typically better candidates for the 50% retrace entry discussed previously. Pin bars will show up in any market. Be sure you practice identifying and trading them on a demo account before trading them with real money. Practice makes perfect.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this pin bar pattern tutorial . For more information on trading pin bars and other price action patterns, click here.
Price Action Strategies.
Support and Resistance Levels Trading Strategy.
Pin Bar and Inside Bar Combo Trading Strategy.
Fakey Trading Strategy (Inside Bar False Break Out)
Inside Bar Trading Strategy.
False Breakout Trading Strategy.
Pin Bar Trading Strategy.
About Nial Fuller.
Nial Fuller is a Professional Trader & Author who is considered ‘The Authority’ on Price Action Trading. He has a monthly readership of 250,000+ traders and has taught 17,000+ students since 2008. Checkout Nial’s Forex Trading Course here.

Fakey Trading Strategy (Inside Bar False Break Out)
The Fakey Pattern (Inside Bar False Break Out)
The Fakey pattern can be best be described as a “false-breakout from an inside bar pattern”. The Fakey pattern always starts with an inside bar pattern. When price initially breaks out from the inside bar pattern but then quickly reverses, creating a false-break, and closes back within the range of the mother bar or inside bar, we have a fakey pattern.
So, think of it like this: Inside Bar + False-Breakout = Fakey pattern.
A Fakey pattern can have a pin bar as the false-break bar or not. The false-break bar might also be a two-bar pattern where the first bar closes outside the inside bar / mother bar range and then the subsequent bar completes the false-break by closing back within the range of the mother bar and (or) inside bar.
Fakey’s are a very important and potent price action trading strategy because they can help us identify stop-hunting by the ‘big boys’ and provide us with a very good clue as to what price might do next. Learning how to trade the fakey pattern is something every price action trader should take seriously, it’s a critical weapon to have in your p. a. trading arsenal.
Let’s take a look at some examples of different types of Fakey patterns to clarify this price action strategy .
Note, in the above diagram of different Fakey patterns, there’s always an inside bar setup first, followed by the false-breakout of the inside bar. Fakey’s can vary slightly from the examples you see above, but the four examples above represent the most common types of Fakey trading strategies that you will encounter on the charts.
How to trade with Fakey Patterns.
Fakey patterns can be traded in trending markets, range-bound markets or even against the trend form key chart levels. There are a lot of false-breakouts in the Forex market, so learning to trade with the Fakey pattern is very important since it can help you take advantage of and profit from these false breakouts, rather than falling victim to them as so many traders do.
The most common entries for a Fakey signal include the following:
Enter as price breaks back past the inside bar or mother bar low or high, following the initial false-break. This can be an on-stop entry or an at market entry. If the Fakey pattern has a pin bar you can use a pin bar trade entry.
Let’s take a look at several different examples of trading Fakey signals in various market conditions:
Trading Fakey’s in a Trending Market.
The chart below shows us a good example of a Fakey buy signal with a pin bar as the false-break bar, in a trending market. Note in this signal that there were actually three inside bars within the mother bar structure. This is relatively common, and sometimes you will even see four inside bars within a mother bar before the false-break or ‘Fakey’ bar occurs.
The next chart shows us another good example of trading a Fakey pattern in a trending market. There was a clear uptrend in place prior to the formation of this Fakey pattern. Note that this particular Fakey was one with a 2-bar false-break, meaning instead of one bar as the false-break, the false-break occurred over two consecutive bars. This is another common form of the Fakey signal to watch for as you analyze and trade the markets:
Trading Fakey’s against the Trend from Key Chart Levels.
Next, we are looking at an example of a counter-trend Fakey. That means it’s a Fakey that implies price might move against the recent / near-term daily chart momentum / trend. In this case, it was a bullish Fakey buy signal that formed at a key support level, following a move lower. Since this Fakey signal was so nice and obvious (well-defined) and it had the confluence of the key support level under it, it was a counter-trend Fakey worth taking:
Here’s another example of a counter-trend Fakey pattern. This time it was a bearish Fakey sell signal from a key resistance level. Note the market was clearly pushing higher just prior to the formation of this Fakey. Then, when the Fakey formed, it also false-broke above a key resistance level in the market, adding extra ‘weight’ to the probability of a move lower. We can see the dramatic sell-off that followed this bearish Fakey:
Tips on Trading the Fakey Pattern:
The above Fakey examples do not include ‘every’ permutation of Fakey you will encounter, rather they are some of the more common ones. Just remember that if you have an inside bar pattern, followed by a false-breakout of that inside bar pattern, you probably have a Fakey pattern. The above point, does not mean that you should trade ‘every’ pattern that has the Fakey requirements discussed above. Whether or not you should take a particular Fakey depends on not only its formation, but also where it forms in the market, i. e., whether or not it has confluence and ‘makes sense’ within the underlying market picture / dynamics. As you gain training and education, experience and screen time price action trading, you’ll develop a better understanding of which Fakey’s (or other price action patterns) are worth trading and which are worth passing on. When beginning, stick to Fakey signals on the daily charts, as the daily chart signals will carry an overall higher degree of accuracy / reliability than lower time frame charts. Eventually, as you gain experience and confidence, you can work in 4 hour and 1 hour time frame Fakey’s.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this Fakey pattern tutorial. You now have a solid foundation on how to trade the fakey signal, from which you can build and expand your Fakey and price action trading knowledge.
Price Action Strategies.
Support and Resistance Levels Trading Strategy.
Pin Bar and Inside Bar Combo Trading Strategy.
Fakey Trading Strategy (Inside Bar False Break Out)
Inside Bar Trading Strategy.
False Breakout Trading Strategy.
Pin Bar Trading Strategy.
About Nial Fuller.
Nial Fuller is a Professional Trader & Author who is considered ‘The Authority’ on Price Action Trading. He has a monthly readership of 250,000+ traders and has taught 17,000+ students since 2008. Checkout Nial’s Forex Trading Course here.

Fake pin bar strategy


If you plan to trade in the market using the technical analysis perspective of trading, you have to keep in mind the basic Forex Trading Strategy that most profound trader would use, which is price action . It is the use of “lagging indicators” as a primary decision making tool. With the knowledge and application of price action, a trader can technically analyze the market without the much exhaustion of other indicators. More importantly, it could guide traders in controlling the possible risk in trading.
The goal in this article is to teach you one of the important Forex trading strategies in relation on how to analyze and grade trends, enter trades, and manage risk while looking at support and resistance. Before we begin in depth, there are few important points to establish first.
Forex Trading Strategy: Price Action.
Analyzing Trends.
Before jumping in, you should observe and analyze if there are any trends that are occurring on the chart. After a thorough assessment, by then you have already distinguished any biases that may exist or how the attitude is fluctuating at the time.
Refer to the Diagram A-1, it depicts the higher-highs and higher-lows in currency pairs to denote up-trends, lower-lows, and lower-highs to qualify for a downtrend.
Entering Trades.
After the trend analysis, you are well equipped to look for trades in the market since you already have an idea of the sentiment on the chart and also the trend in currency pair.
Here are some of the different Forex Trading Strategies in entering trade that you can use:
1. Price Action Pin Bars – The Pin Bar is highlighted by the elongated wick that ‘sticks out’ from price action. It is a reversal price bar on a chart which shows an obvious change in sentiment during that period. The price bar has a long tail with the close price near the open. Pin Bar occurs after an extended move up or down. The bar looks like a pin thus the name Pin Bar. To visualize what a Pin Bar looks like, refer to Diagram A-2.
2. Fake Pin Bars – If the long wick does not stick out from previous price action; they are not a genuine Pin Bar, but rather ‘Fake Pin Bars’, which differs Fake Pin Bars from Pin Bars. Basically, the difference between a Pin Bar and a Fake Pin Bar is determined by recent price action. Trading Fake Pin Bars requires additional analysis, as the signal of a short-term reversal in prices may not be as consistent as that of a genuine pin bar. To visualize what a Fake Pin Bar looks like, refer to Diagram A-3.
3. Double-Spikes – There are two types of Double-Spikes that you should know of: Double-Spike Breakout and Double-Spike Fade.
Double-Spike Breakout – If the price is rebuked for more than once by the support or resistance then the trader should anticipate a Double-Spike Breakout. Double-Spike Fade – If there is a continuous anticipation of support and resistance then it is considered to be Double-Spike Fade.
Managing Risks.
Identify Price Action swings.
Identify Positive Risk-Reward Ratios.
Bottom line is that the price action is one of the most important Forex Trading Strategies out there in relation to analyzing the trend, trading and managing risks.

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